Can USC make CFP? Odds, scenarios for Trojans to crash College Football Playoff field Craig Meyer, USA TODAY NETWORKNovember 22, 2025 at 3:02 AM 0 When Lincoln Riley stunned much of the college football world by leaving Oklahoma for USC four years ago, the general expectation was that the Trojans would soon return to being among the sport's elite and be in annual contention for national championships. While far from a failure, the experiment hasn't exactly gone according to plan.
- - Can USC make CFP? Odds, scenarios for Trojans to crash College Football Playoff field
Craig Meyer, USA TODAY NETWORKNovember 22, 2025 at 3:02 AM
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When Lincoln Riley stunned much of the college football world by leaving Oklahoma for USC four years ago, the general expectation was that the Trojans would soon return to being among the sport's elite and be in annual contention for national championships.
While far from a failure, the experiment hasn't exactly gone according to plan.
After winning four conference championships and making three College Football Playoffs with the Sooners, Riley hasn't quite been able to replicate that success in Los Angeles. He went 26-14 in his first three seasons with the program and failed to make the playoff, despite having Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams for the first two years. Last season, the Trojans suffered through a 7-6 slog, giving Riley his most losses ever in a season as a head coach.
REQUIRED READING: Lincoln Riley can burn down this College Football Playoff. Grab the matches
This season, though, the promise that greeted his arrival is starting to appear once again.
USC has been among the best teams in the Big Ten this season, with an 8-2 record and a No. 16 ranking in the US LBM Coaches Poll heading into its highly anticipated game at No. 5 Oregon on Saturday, Nov. 22. While stacking up wins, the Trojans have displayed some of the offensive explosiveness that defined many of Riley's Oklahoma teams, with quarterback Jayden Maiava leading an offense that's averaging 38.2 points per game, the 10th-highest mark among FBS programs.
Will that improvement end with a chance to compete for a national title?
Before the Trojans kick off against Oregon on Saturday, here's a look at USC's playoff hopes:
Can USC make the CFP?
Yes, as the 2025 regular season wraps up, USC is very much still alive for a berth in the College Football Playoff.
The Trojans were No. 15 in the latest batch of rankings from the playoff selection committee, which puts them five spots behind the last at-large team in the 12-team field – Alabama – if the season ended today.
They're one of 19 teams from the Power Four conferences (and Notre Dame) with two or fewer losses so far this season. While it's a small sample size to base future decisions from the committee off of, no squad got into the inaugural 12-team playoff last year with more than two losses.
They have some notable wins to their name, too, with victories against Michigan and Iowa teams that were ranked at the time of their matchups. Additionally, they're No. 13 in ESPN's SP+ rankings, with the No. 15 strength of record.
The most straightforward scenario for USC to make the playoff is to win its final two games and win the Big Ten championship game, which would earn it an automatic bid to the playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
The Trojans' path to the Big Ten title game is narrow enough already and would require them to not only beat Oregon and UCLA, but have Michigan topple No. 1 Ohio State. Even a 2-0 record and a stunning Purdue upset of No. 2 Indiana wouldn't get them in, as the Hoosiers own a tiebreaker over them. Should both Ohio State and Indiana drop a conference game the rest of the season, which would require suffering losses as enormous favorites, USC would make it to the title game if it wins out.
All those permutations may not be in the Trojans' best interest, though. After all, their best route to the playoff would be avoiding the Big Ten championship game entirely.
If USC beats Oregon and UCLA and doesn't make the Big Ten championship game, ESPN's playoff predictor gives it a 75% chance of making the field. If it goes 2-0 the rest of the regular season and loses in the Big Ten title game, it would have a 61% chance. Its outlook sours considerably with a loss in either of its next two games, as its odds would fall all the way to less than 1%.
USC's chances of getting there hinge largely on this weekend's game against Oregon, as UCLA, at 3-7, will almost certainly be a sizable underdog in their rivalry matchup. The Ducks are favored to beat the Trojans by 9.5 points, according to odds from BetMGM on Wednesday, Nov. 19.
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USC football schedule 2025
Here's a look at the Trojans' 2025 results and remaining schedule:
Saturday, Aug. 30: USC 73, Missouri State 13
Saturday, Sept. 6: USC 59, Georgia Southern 20
Saturday, Sept. 13: USC 33, Purdue 17
Saturday, Sept. 20: USC 45, Michigan State 31
Saturday, Sept. 27: No. 23 Illinois 34, USC 32
Saturday, Oct. 4: BYE
Saturday, Oct. 11: USC 31, No. 15 Michigan 13
Saturday, Oct. 18: No. 13 Notre Dame 34, USC 24
Saturday, Oct. 25: BYE
Saturday, Nov. 1: USC 21, Nebraska 17
Friday, Nov. 7: USC 38, Northwestern 17
Saturday, Nov. 15: USC 26, No. 21 Iowa 21
Saturday, Nov. 22: at No. 5 Oregon
Saturday, Nov. 29: vs. UCLA
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can USC make CFP? Odds, scenarios for Trojans to crash playoff field
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Published: November 22, 2025 at 01:27PM on Source: MARIO MAG
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